DeFi · 60 / 86
Prediction markets
A prediction market pays out based on an outcome someone has to judge. You are betting. You are also trusting the judge and the oracle.
The bet
The price of a share is a crowd's probability, not a fact. You can lose the stake. A market that says 90 percent is not a promise.
The judge
Someone decides what really happened. That person or committee can be late, biased, or bribed. Read who resolves the market before you like the odds.
It is not a salary and it is not news. It is a bet with a referee.
Check yourself
Is a high price in a prediction market a fact?
No. It is a crowd's bet, and a referee still has to rule.
After this you can name who decides the outcome before you stake on a market.